Matt Wieters was ranked as the No. 18 free agent before the courting season started. Since the calendar has turned, the likelihood of Wieters securing the deal he wants dramatically changes.
Wieters’ claim to fame is his comparisons rather than his production. Even since being drafted, he’s been placed in the same vanguard as elite backstops, and despite flashing signs of matching those comparisons, he never reached the top of that mountain. The reliable catcher has always hovered around base camp rather than scale the pantheon of great catchers. Thus, a reason why teams are simply circling around his free agency rather than striding headlong into negotiations.
It’s telling that the Baltimore Orioles didn’t think enough of Wieters – a player that’s spent his whole career in Baltimore – to make a qualifying offer. After signing Wellington Castillo, Wieters seems to be the odd man out. It’s not impossible that the O’s will sign Wieters too, but it would be a curious move considering the long-term deal the veteran wants.
Along with his former teammate Mark Trumbo, the two sluggers seem to be moving towards show-me deals on one-year contracts. And since the Chicago White Sox are painfully void of quality catching with a host of young pitching talent to be mentored, a veteran catcher like Wieters could be another quality move in a rebuilding year.
In the minors, Wieters drew high praise after hitting .355 with 27 home runs and 91 runs batted in between High-A and Double-A in one season. Names like Joe Mauer and Mark Teixeira were thrown around as cognates to Wieters and early in his career, he followed through on those comparisons to some degree. From 2011 to 2013, Wieters hit 20 or more home runs while reaching two All-Star teams, even receiving MVP votes in 2012. Yet, Wieters has never eclipsed 100 RBI in a season over his entire career. And after Tommy John surgery in 2014, he hasn’t recovered to his earlier production.
The final story on Wieters is he’s a career .256 hitter with 117 home runs over eight seasons and average defensive ability. He threw out 35 percent of runners last season with a -55 +Call rate – by comparison, Russell Martin’s +Call was 19 and Wellington Castillo logged -24. Wieters is not among elite receivers and with his decline in offense, it’s hard to justify a 5-year $80 million type deal he’s been compared to. Moreover, his IFFB rate (Infield Fly Ball) in 2016 was the highest of his career at 12.7 percent – an odious indication of sluggish bat speed.
Wieters accepted the qualifying offer from the O’s in 2016 – a wise decision given his lengthy recovery from Tommy John surgery – but as the winter wears on it becomes increasingly likely the veteran will have to sing for his supper on a one-year deal.
And so, the White Sox would be wise to check in on the veteran.
A quality backstop like Wieters won’t be as cheap as Derek Holland and will be hard to stomach given his pedestrian numbers with a flashy nametag. But if any club can pull off contract gymnastics, it’s the White Sox. The veteran made $15.8 million last year and while players with the kind of cache Wieters has don’t usually take pay cuts, it seems likely he will do so in order to find a job.
Despite the difference in Wieters’ perceived value versus actual value, there are teams like the Washington Nationals, Atlanta Braves and Colorado Rockies circling his camp. The Braves seem content with Tyler Flowers (and by most metrics, Wieters would be a downgrade from Flowers) while the Nationals traded for Derek Norris in early December. The Rockies have a young catcher in Tony Wolters and Wieters could slip into the catching rotation here, but he’d have to sacrifice years on his contract and play more of a mentor role than headline a lineup.
The Orioles are always a possibility to drop in and swipe Wieters for a decent contract based on his familiarity with the American League East and his comfort in Baltimore. But there could be an opportunity for the White Sox to offer an attractive one-year deal that would benefit both parties.
The White Sox could use a veteran catcher on a short-term contract to upgrade the framing situation from last season, and if Wieters lights the world on fire for four months, trade deals could materialize for a decent prospect haul.
Wieters will be playing most of the upcoming season at 31 years old and most teams that will vie for his service at the trade deadline won’t mind acquiring a rental at half-price. His agent Scott Boras will certainly try to drive his client’s price up, but if the White Sox can grab a veteran of Wieters’ ilk for $10-$12 million for one season, it would be a win for both sides. However, the South Siders have the luxury of waiting till the 11th-hour to make a deal (if there is one to be had) and if the Nationals land Wieters the likelihood of another landmark trade involving David Robertson, Derek Norris and prospects boosts dramatically.
The X-factor in this equation is Scott Boras, who is known for driving hard bargains while raking in outrageous contracts for his clients. Be it resolved that with Boras at the helm of Wieters free agent negotiations the next two months will be entertaining.
Matt Enuco is a Staff Writer for Outside Pitch MLB covering the Chicago White Sox. Follow Matt on Twitter.
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