When it comes to mid-level free agent starting pitchers who throw from the left side, the list is pretty short. Really short. As in two. Your choices are either Wei-Yin Chen or Scott Kazmir.
Chen, at age 30, is about 18 months younger than Kazmir, who will turn 32 in a few weeks. That could explain why Chen is expected to get a longer term deal than Kazmir. Chen turned down a qualifying offer from his former team the Baltimore Orioles which means the team who signs him will lose a first-round draft pick to the Orioles. Kazmir, on the other hand, was traded by the Oakland Athletics to the Houston Astros at the July trading deadline so whoever signs him will not lose a draft pick. So Kazmir should end up costing his new club less not only in salary but in the draft. Chen could also be hurt by the fact that he is represented by agent Scott Boras, the bane of many a general manager. Reports say that Boras and Chen want a five-year, $100 million contract. Let’s take a look at the strengths and weaknesses of each pitcher to see if Chen is worth that sort of money.
When it comes to performance over the past three seasons, it’s pretty much a push. Chen is 34-21 with a 3.61 earned run average while pitching in hitter-friendly Camden Yards in Baltimore. Since 2013, Kazmir has posted a 32-29 record with a 3.54 ERA while spending the majority of his time in a pitcher-friendly park in Oakland.
While the overall statistics seem pretty much the same, delving a little deeper reveals a distinct difference between the two. Chen is much more consistent than Kazmir. Over the past three seasons, Chen’s average monthly ERAs have fluctuated from 3.02 to 4.34 (not counting one start in October). Kazmir, on the other hand, is more of a streaky pitcher. His average monthly ERA has been anywhere from 1.50 to 5.74. He has also shown a propensity to perform at his worst in August and September. Streaky pitchers are no better than streaky hitters like Justin Upton, in this writer’s opinion. Chen’s ability to keep his team in more ballgames than Kazmir gives the native of Taiwan the performance advantage.
Chen also has proven that he is the healthier of the two. Aside from six weeks out with an oblique injury in 2013, he has been a regular in the Orioles’ rotation. Kazmir has a history of health issues from earlier in his career and has missed an occasional start with forearm tightness over the last two seasons.
Earlier this week, Bob Nightengale of USA Today said that Kazmir was being pursued by the Kansas City Royals, Oakland Athletics, St. Louis Cardinals, Baltimore Orioles and Washington Nationals. The Nats have also reportedly shown interest in Chen but it seems his asking price is scaring many clubs away.
All things equal, Chen is the better option. But there seems to be no reason why anyone would pay him $100 million for five years when they could sign Kazmir for around $35 or $40 million over three years while not surrendering a draft pick. Should Boras and Chen lower their asking price to maybe $70 million over five years, then the decision becomes more difficult.
Gerard Farek is a senior writer for Outside Pitch MLB. Follow and/or chat with him on Twitter here.
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